HDB Resale 2025 Recap: Million-Dollar Flats, MOP Supply, and the 2026 Outlook

2025 was the year HDB resale stopped being a "ceiling" market and became a genuine supply-and-demand story. Million-dollar flats stopped making headlines because they stopped being unusual. Here's what actually happened — and what it means for 2026 buyers and sellers.

The numbers

• Median resale price up ~5.4% YoY. A measured climb, not a runaway.
• Million-dollar transactions: roughly 2.8% of all resale volume. Up from 1.9% in 2024 — concentrated in mature estates and well-located 5-room/executive flats.
• MOP supply increased by ~12%. A wave of 2020-era BTOs hit the resale market as their MOP cleared.
• Average days-on-market dropped to ~38 days. Demand outpaced listing.

What's driving demand

Three forces:

1. Upgraders timing the move. Many couples who got BTOs around 2020 are reaching the upgrade window — and a fair number are choosing to "upgrade in place" by selling and buying a larger resale rather than going private.
2. Extended lease purchasers. With lease-decay concerns easing in selected mature estates (thanks to VERS and SERS clarity), buyers are returning to flats with 70-80 years remaining.
3. Cash-rich downsizers. Right-sizers exiting larger private property for centrally-located resale with less maintenance overhead.

The 2026 outlook

I expect:

• Continued mid-single-digit price growth — barring a cooling-measure intervention
• MOP supply easing slightly — fewer 2021-era BTOs reach MOP in 2026
• Million-dollar share creeping up — likely toward 3.5–4% by year-end
• Increased policy attention if growth accelerates — watch the August NDR for any signal

What buyers should do

If you're buying resale in 2026:

• Don't anchor on 2024 prices. They're stale.
• Move on the right unit, not the cheapest. In a tight market, layout and location compound; PSF discounts on bad layouts don't.
• Have your IPA ready before you offer. Sellers in mature estates are seeing multiple offers and will favour buyers who can move fast.

For a closer look at any specific estate, send a message — happy to share what I'm seeing on the ground.